Electricity Market Forecasting for Renewables Integration
School of Civil and Structural Engineering, TU Dublin
The Research Partners
ESB Trading is a leader in the Irish wholesale energy market and has entered the GB energy market. ESB Trading delivers essential asset optimisation services, risk management and wholesale market access to ESB Group and to its third party customers.
The Dublin Energy Lab (DEL) is TU Dublin’s interdisciplinary energy research centre which undertakes research on novel devices, systems and their economic performances in the marketplace.
ESB Modelling and Market Analysis is a dynamic and multi-disciplined team which use an integrated set of modelling tools to forecast the price of electricity and the profitability our assets in Ireland and GB. Modelling and Market Analysis provides a significant input to portfolio optimisation, asset management & development, trading, tariff pricing and finance.
This collaborative research project between the DEL and the ESB aims to develop fundamental, algorithmic and statistical models, perform analysis and advise on strategies to help value and manage complex contracts and/or assets, as well as conduct ad-hoc bespoke analysis for ESB stakeholders. It aims to innovate and improve how ESB Modelling and Market Analysis undertakes its analysis so as to keep up to date with the most recent advances in modelling and predictive analytics in electricity markets.
With the recent significant changes in the Irish Wholesale energy market, as well as ESB’s growth in GB, working in Market Modelling and Analysis offers a unique opportunity to significantly impact ESB’s trajectory in the energy market.
This role will involve providing critical business-relevant research support in delivering key strategic energy market modelling projects for the ESB Trading and Asset Management functions.
We're looking for a highly analytical individual who is capable of running key processes within the modelling function and analysing large volumes of data to provide insightful analysis. Your research skills in data analytics will allow you to create, develop and improve electricity market modelling processes. Your excellent communication skills will help you to build strong relations with others, working to deliver a high quality product.
Strategic Market Modelling Projects:
• Help identify and define key strategic energy market modelling projects which would provide long term value to the business
• Deliver the market modelling and analysis as part of these projects using key modelling business processes and tools including ESB’s Plexos Market Model, R, SQL and Python.
• Identify actionable insights based on analysis that will assist in meeting key business objectives.
Bidding Strategy analytics:
• Identify optimum ESB bidding strategies, incorporating 3rd party bidding strategies. This may include simulating Day Ahead, Intra Day and balancing market outcomes following risk prone/ risk neutral/ risk averse behaviours from other major participants.
Analytical and Decision Making Tools:
• Identify areas for improvement in terms of systems and business processes.
• Help develop decision making tools to determine bidding strategies.
• Work with key stakeholders from trading, asset management and finance in order to determine requirements and design solutions.
• Build knowledge of energy market dynamics and market modelling tools.
• Provide advice, knowledge sharing, on energy market dynamics.
• Provide periodic written and verbal reporting on projects delivered and insights gained.
• Author publications for leading international journals subject to commercial confidentiality constraints.
Candidates are required to complete a Postgraduate Diploma in Research Management and to participate fully in the academic life of the Institute and to participate in postgraduate research seminars, evaluations and supervision.
Candidate will work closely with the ESB Modelling and Market Analysis team for the duration of the project.
This is a two-year appointment.
Student requirements for this project:
The ideal candidate will have a PhD in engineering, computer science, statistics, mathematics or a related discipline with strong programming skills and relevant experience in energy markets, forecasting and big data analysis.
Applicants will be expected to demonstrate strong competencies in the following areas:
• written and oral communication;
• team working and taking responsibility for successful task delivery;
• project management, including workload prioritisation and working to strict deadlines;
• problem solving; and
• innovative/creative approaches to research challenges.
Applicants are expected to have some or all of the following skills:
• working knowledge of R, SQL and Python;
• understanding of Plexos or similar energy market modelling software;
• experience in mathematical and statistical modelling approaches including time series analysis and forecasting;
• experience of manipulating, cleaning and validating large datasets.